ASL Puzzles by ritterkrieg.com

沙漠胃病

不知不觉ritterkrieg.com出了不少解题，不过一般都分散在文章内部，在这里做个保存，公布的答案为反白





Situation: The Germans must have 4VP worth of infantry in buildings (M7, K7, K10) at Game End. It is the German Turn 6 PFPh. How should the German player proceed to ensure the greatest chance of success? The units in M7 are in melee (the cat must have knocked the counter off).


Solution:

PFPh: None

MPh:

K6 AM to K7

R9 to Q9-Q8-Q7-P6

APh:

P6 to O7 (to prevent 4-4-7 from joining melee in turn 7)

K7 to L7 (to prevent 4-4-7 from joining melee in turn 7)

CC:

Kill 237 on a or 7 or less (two chances). Prisoners re-arm to give 4 VP in the required buildings.         
        
        
  

沙漠胃病

Situation:

October, 1944. It is the RPh of the last (German) Player Turn of the game. The Germans need to control rowhouse building R3 for the win. What actions should the German player take to have the greatest chance for victory.

N.B. – The PzIII is in the R4 building hex (not in bypass). The Germans are Assault Engineers. SAN and ELR for both sides is 2 and 3. No Quarter is in effect for both sides. The counter in R5 that is partially obscured by the image of the PzIII is a PIAT.


Solution:

In order to control building R6, all British units must be eliminated, not just broken so something must be done to prevent someone from routing upstairs. Note that in the video there is mention of the German’s needing to break or pin the British leader in order for him to not rout upstairs with a broken MMC and keep control of the building. I am not sure if this is incorrect as the leader may share the fate of the MMC and be eliminated for failure to rout even though he is not broken.

PFPh:

None

MPh:

PzIII: Does nothing. It’s sole purpose is to prevent the British from routing to R4.

9-2, 338, DC in R8: R7, R6(Level 0), R6(Level 1), Set DC for Breech, R6(Level 0).

338, DC in Q7: R6, Set DC for Breech.

338, FT in P8: Q8, R7, R6.

127 in O9: CX, Bypass P8, Q8, R7, R6, R6(Level 1)

DFPh:

None

AFPh:

Demolition charges go off creating breeches on a 10 or less (NMC needed on the 30+3) also attacking the British with a 12+3.

Flamethrower attacks through the Level 0 breech with a 24 Flat.

2 HS and 9-2 attack with a 6+1.

RTPh:

If the breech was created upstairs, any Broken British are eliminated for failure to rout because of the vehicle crew.

APh:

9-2 and the 3 x 338 advance into CC against any unbroken British and hope for the best.        

沙漠胃病

            

April 1945. Russian SAN=0. ESB Not Allowed. In this contest, you are the German player trying to prevent a Russian victory. It is the Russian MPh and the T-34/85 has already spent 9 MP’s. The Russian wins if they exit the AFV off road A5-A6. What should the German player do to ensure the best chance for victory? Show your work and rough odds (rounded) for victory.


Solution:

So the first thing to note is that the Soviet tank must go CE immediately in order to exit the map as he only has 7 MP’s remaining. So let’s look at the odds for the German player to stop the T-34 based on his options. Note that it is not necessary to destroy the tank as even a mere failed PTC will cause the tank to BU and deprive it of the road bonus and make exiting impossible.

The three types of attacks available to the German are IFT, Panzerfaust, and CC Reaction Fire. Let’s look at the numbers for each individually.

IFT: Based on the odds given in Robert Medrow’s excellent article in ‘ASL Classic’, the odds for an 8 Morale crew to become at least Pinned with a 0 DRM attack (-2 leader, +2 CE TEM = 0): 16/8 FP = 68%/49% respectively.

Panzerfaust: Since it is 1945, the chance that the Squad would have a PF is 66.7%. If the availability dr is successful, the best chance for a hit would be in hex E8 using the leadership and eating the backblast would be 58.3% (Base 10, +2 Range, +2 Motion, +1 Restricted Aim, -2 Leadership = 7). Combining the availability dr, the TH DR, and the chance of rolling a Dud, you are left with a meager 38.2% of taking out the tank. On top of this, you have used your leadership, you have risked pinning on your availability check, pinning/breaking/CR on the backblast, and risked CR on a TH roll of boxcars, making a subsequent first fire attack have even less chance of success if even possible. There is the option of firing the PF without eating the backblast and/or not using the leadership DRM but this is a Hail Mary shot that would increase your overall odds of taking out the tank by about 2% while reducing your chances on other forms of attacks by more than 2% because of the possibility of pinning on the availability roll or the PF exploding in your face on the TH roll.

CC Reaction Fire: For a 8 Morale unit with a -2 DRM to pass a PAATC is 91.7%. Next, there are three separate sets of attack DRM dependent on availability of ATMM (this is assuming that the leader will not try for one). ATMM(dr1-3)/No ATMM(dr4-5)/ No ATMM & Pinned(dr6). With an ATMM The cumulative DRM of leadership, Street Fighting, CE Vehicle, Motion, ATMM =-5 (91.7%). Without a ATMM the cumulative DRM of leadership, Street Fighting, CE Vehicle, Motion =-2 (58.3%). Without a ATMM and being Pinned the cumulative DRM of leadership, Street Fighting, CE Vehicle, Motion. Pinned =-1 (41.7%). So combined with the PAATC, the Tank would become immobile or immobilized/destroyed are 84.1%/53.5%/40.5 Therefore, the chance of stopping the tank on a First Fire CC Reaction attack is (3 x ATMM + 2 x No ATM+ 1 x No ATMM & Pinned)/6 = 70.4%. If the squad and leader are already marked First Fire, this number drops to 55.2%.

So firing on the IFT 3 times 8FP would yield an 87% chance of victory, Firing once on the 16 and once on the 8 would yield an 84% chance. Firing on the 8FP in G9, then PF (No Backblast or leadership in F8), then 8FP (F8), then 8FP (FPF in E8) would yield 89%. Because of the almost 20% chance that 6 is rolled on the check or a 12 is rolled on the shot, this option is not worth the extra 2% chance of success. Street fighting twice in hexes F8 and E8 would yield a 86.5% chance. Firing IFT in G9 and then Street Fighting twice in F8 and E8 would be 89.8% (this is actually too high as the chance of a second CCRF attack is lower because the squad may have pinned or been CR during the first CC attack). So I believe, if I calculated this correctly the greatest chance of success would be to fire small arms at the CE crew in G9, then Street Fight in F8, followed by more street fighting in F8 – OR- fire 3 times using the IFE. I expect much debate on this as I am sure I left something out or my math has let me down. But this is based on pre-plotting your actions before seeing the results as they transpire. Of course a more realistic answer would be to create a flowchart. Because of the crazy complexities and permutations of this puzzle, I am declaring everyone who answered with a solution a Winner! I will be e-mailing you a Ritterkrieg $10 gift code. Thanks for playing. My brain hurts.

Tips and Tricks:

I have often pondered the choice of combining into one Firegroup for a higher column on the IFT, or making two lower strength attacks. What I have found is if the net DRM is 0 or negative, split the attacks. If the net DRM is positive, make one combined attack. Although this is oversimplification and there are several notable exceptions and it leaves out many variables like Cowering, MG breakdown #’s, Snipers, other potential targets if your first attack succeeds, it is a good rule of thumb to go by when you are playing someone who doesn’t appreciate you thumbing through tables before each shot. In the diagram below, the Minor player has a 28% chance of affecting the squad in L6 with a combined 12 FP attack but only a 22% chance by making 2 x 6FP attacks. But when firing at the Squad in N7 he has a 58% and a 64% chance respectively. In each case, making the right decision was worth an extra 6% chance of success. For a closer look, see page 39 in ASL Classic.

沙漠胃病

It is the last American turn of the game. In order to win, you, the American player must exit one AFV with functioning MA off of road hexes A15/A16. It is January 1945, Mild Breeze from the NE (top of map is North). The Americans are Elite by SSR. What will you do to ensure the best chance for victory.

Solution:

The solution to this one is actually quite simple. I deliberately tried to complicate the matter and deceive by displaying the sM, WP, and S numbers on the back of the counters as well as throwing in nonsense about the wind and the date. The answer is, start in platoon movement for 1 MP and even if one tank is destroyed by the ATG, the second tank can scoot out of sight on the second MP and proceed to exit the board without ever getting back into LOS of the Hun.

沙漠胃病

Sicily, 1943. Last player Turn of the game, it is the US MPh. In order to win, the American player must control 4 multi-hex stone buildings. N4 and L6 are both Italian controlled. What can the US player do to ensure his best chance of victory?


Solution:

Okay, so this puzzle is a little more nuanced.

Building J4: I give up any hopes of capturing building J4 as the 4-4-7 would have to fail 3 Morale Checks to make the building capturable as he sits on a stairwell (yes, you had to do some research for this contest and pull out board 1). Routing upstairs including by voluntary Break would deny control to the Americans.

Building L6: G4 squad drops the HMG, moves to H4-I5-J5(Bypass)-K6. Advances into L6 during the APh.

Building M5: Move Sherman M6 (1), sM in hex K4 (2), L5(3), L4(10), K4 Bypasss (12). If Sherman was destroyed by CCRF then 2-3-7 to hex J3 (this will prohibit the Italian Squad from firing into L5 as he will either be marked Final Fire for shooting at the 2-3-7 or will not be allowed to fire at L5 because there is a closer enemy unit. Now pick up the 3-3-7 as riders in D5, move D6, E7, F7, G7, H6, I6, J6, K6, L5, M6, Stop in M6, disembark, and Advance into M5 for the win in the APh.

沙漠胃病

It is the American Rally Phase of the final Player Turn of the game. Under normal circumstances, any decent human being would concede as the American Player and go grab a beer downstairs to drown his sorrows. But these are not normal times. These are the finals of ASLOK 2094, Being run by the great grandchildren of Brett and Wild Bill. In order to win, the American player must control Building N4. To add insult to injury, the designer of the scenario, Pete Shelling’s great grand-daughter made the SSR that all US MMC that wish to Move must Move as a stack if they start the MPh in the same Location. What should the American do to ensure the greatest (yet slim) chance of victory? Note that the US 10-3 is wounded. Building N4 is currently German controlled

Solution:

Well the Americans are pretty much screwed. The chance for one of them to survive a 36 down 3 attack followed by a 16 down 3 attack SFF (the Amis have to spend 2 MF to cross the roadblockto get into O5 so they can get attacked twice) is less that 0.25% according to the article in ASL Classic. So what can we do to improve our odds dramatically? Here is my plan…

1.Rally Phase: Deploy 667 Squad.

2. MPh: Move the 3 HS (or Squad and HS if they failed to Deploy) to P5.

3. RtPh: Voluntarily Break the units one at a time (Do not Rout together as they will take one combined interdiction roll and this is bad) in P5 and Rout toward N4. Each will have to take an interdiction roll in O5 and if, and it’s a big if, one of them rolls snake eyes (2.8%) for HOB, and they roll an 8 or less on the HOB roll (72.2%) they will end their Rout Phase in O5 in Good order and able to Advance into N4 for the Win!

So the chance of pulling it off is 2.02% per unit. So if the Squad manages to deploy, you have about a 6% chance of winning the game (97.98% Cubed = 94% chance of failure). If the Squad failed to deploy you have about a 4% chance of pulling it off (97.98% Squared = 96% chance of failure) Which is still easier than getting a CH. Both are exponentially better odds than trying to rush the building.

沙漠胃病

It is the DFPh in the final Player Turn (US) and the American is 4 CVP short for the win.  He has moved two Bazooka HS and a M4A376(W) in for the kill.  What do you do as the German player to ensure the greatest chance for victory? Note that the M4A3 has not depleted it’s APCR (A5). It may be easier to visualize your options if you pull out your Hatten map.

Solution:

Paul Washington, no relation to George other than in stunning battlefield prowess, is the winner of contest #96. So let’s dissect this one. The biggest problem facing the Panther is that it has no way to avoid presenting a side/rear facing to at least some of his enemies. As things stand now, the chance of a hit from each unit are:

R7: Final TH of 8 (turret hit needed) 1/3 chance of a hit. Final TK of 10.

R10: Final TH of 7 (turret hit needed) 10/36 chance of a hit. Final TK of 2. (So only a CH can penetrate).

W11: Final TH of 5 (turret hit needed) 5/36. Final TK of 15 (Side shot with APCR).

Not great odds of survival.

But…If you recognized the clue I left for you in the wording of the puzzle, you pulled out your Hatten map and are aware that hex S9 also contains a stone building. So this is how I would play it:

Panther fires CMG at R10. Turns turret and fires MA at W11 (4 TH, all but dud kills). It still has not fired the BMG so turns hull and turret to face R8-R9 without firing. During the AFPh, the Panther chooses the Building +3 TEM instead of the HD Wall. So even if the Panther did not manage to do any damage with it’s Defensive Fire it has dramatically improved it’s odds of survival as all 3 American units need to roll Snake eyes for a chance to kill the Panther.

The 2 Bazookas can not do more than Shock the Panther without scoring a CH (16 TK vs. a 14 armor at worst from the front armor facing).

The Sherman only hits on a 2 (TH: Base 10,+1 size, -4 Moved, -2 Orchards, -3 Stone Building).

So at best the Americans would have about a 7% chance of taking out the Panther and winning the game.

沙漠胃病

     
Libya, 1941. DTO is in Effect. Rommel is on the attack. In order to win, the German must Control building hex M4 at Game End. It is the British DFPh of the final player turn (German). What should the British actions be for the rest of the turn to best deny the Germans a win. Assume all IFT and Morale Check rolls are 7’s . Any German Advances will be into M4.

Graphic Clarification: The two German 4-6-8 Squads are both IN Trenches and have both Prep Fired. British Squad C is in Building hex M4.

Solution:

Assessment:  I assume there is no Sand in play on the map section shown (that would reduce the Trench TEM to +1).  Since the Germans have to control the buildings in hex M4, and since both squads have Prep fired (with apparently no result) the only way they will win is to advance in to M4 to CC and eliminate British squad C.  The issue then becomes how to provide squad C the best chance of surviving the upcoming CC.  The predesignated DRs mean that the German squads will not break (or Pin in their current state).  The Germans will have to eliminate the British squad, not casualty reduce it or hold it in Melee since that will not give them control of the hex.
British actions:- British squad A defensive fires on German squad D at 8+2.  Results would be a PTC, which would have no effect with the predesignated MC DR of 7.
– British squad B fires on German squad D at 4+2.  No effect on the IFT, but squad D would become Encircled.
– British squad C fires on German squad D at 8+2.  Since the squad is Encircled, its morale is reduced by 1, but it would still pass its TC on a predesignated MC DR of 7.
With squad D suffering Encirclement penalties, it will have to pay double MP (total of 5 MP: 1 to exit the Trench and 4 to enter M4)) to advance in to M4 during AdvPh, which would CX it.  The German player would have to decide it he was going to advance both squads in to M4 and suffer the +1/-1 CX penalties for the resulting 2:1 CC, or only advance in the non-Encircled squad to avoid the CX penalties, but which would make the CC 1:1.  The Germans would need a 5 or less to win for a 2:1 CC (using both squads D and E with the CX penalty), or a 4 or less to win for a 1:1 CC (only using squad E), assuming no ambush modifiers.

沙漠胃病

Lost in the desert desperately trying to find fuel, water, or honor, this small group of Germans stumble on a village just as their panzer III sounds the all too familiar cough as it slurps it’s last drop of petrol. After clearing the first three buildings without incident or reward, they discover a squad of Desert Rats holed up in a small stone domicile encased with a wall of field rocks. With an instinct for decisive action, honed during his NCO training at Clevelandshoffen just that previous October, Sgt. Paul Washington conceives an unorthodox plan to carry the day. If he can pull this off, the Iron Cross no doubt awaits him… possibly pinned on him by none other than the Desert Fox himself!

Lybia 1941. DTO is in effect. It is the AFPh of the final player turn (German) and in order to win they must control building Y2 (there is a stone building beneath the British Squad). What is the best course of action for the German player to have the most chances of gaining control of building Y2 and winning the game?

Solution:

Much to the dismay of the elite tank crew, Washington finds an unorthodox use for them. Taking advantage of the chivalrous conduct regarding quarter in the desert, he orders the five men to distract the British by… surrendering?!? While the Tommy’s are welcoming their new guests, he and the ten remaining men hop the wall and enter the building, firing at point blank range in a wild melee that just barely carries the day.

The conventional approach would be to fire with the 548 and then advance into CC with all three units. Unfortunately, there is not enough firepower coming from the leader directed crew for even a PTC let alone a NMC for encircling fire. Since the crew adds an insignificant CC strength to affect either the attack or the defense odds (7:4 = 3:2 column & 6:4 = 3:2 column, likewise 4:7 = 1:2 column & 4:6 = 1:2 column), it would best serve the cause to surrender and halve the CC strength of the British (as this is DTO, surrender cannot be refused). This simple move changes the odds of the Germans capturing the victory as follows:

No Ambush: 25.5% to 27.2%.

German Ambush: 40.5% to 41.7%

British Ambush: 13.9% to 15.3%

So the final odds including the chance of ambush assuming that the German failed to break or pin the British squad during the AFPh would be: 26.06% without surrendering to 27.63% if the crew does surrender. Although this is a very modest increase it is absolutely free and without negative effect. Although gamey, there is no ‘*’ next to a ‘W’.

Note that Sgt. Washington could have volunteered to be the surrendering party instead of the crew and the effect would have been the same.

沙漠胃病

It is the MPh of the last player turn (Italian) of the game. The Italians need to take building X12 to bring glory to what’s left of the Roman Legions. He realizes that there is plethora lead facing his every move. After first NAM to W15 for 1.5 MF’s, a Russian squad in U13 fire at him with a 4 flat and roll a 3,3. This cowers to NE on the IFT and activates an Italian Sniper. A subsequent roll of 1 and then 5,1 for direction/distance.

What would you do to ensure your best possible chance of winning as the Italian player?

Note: I used deluxe sized hexes for the diagram but this is a standard (non-Deluxe) scenario.

Solution:

The solution to this one is pretty simple if you remembered one key rule that I often forget. The thick white box on the KV signifies that it is Restricted Slow Traverse. Because the AFV is CE, is is neither capable of firing it’s MA nor it’s CMG. Further, because it is behind a wall, it’s BMG is useless as well. So the tank can be completely ignored and the Sniper used on the Squad, ensuring the Italian victory.